Model: Strategy & Competition

When a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, fear and miscalculation can tip competition into conflict unless incentives and guardrails are redesigned.

Aim for vertical progress—create something truly new (0 → 1), not just more of the same (1 → n). Win by building a monopoly on a focused niche and compounding from there.

Before building, map the space: the key forks, dead ends and dependencies—so you can choose a promising path and run smarter tests.

Richard Koch’s rule to back category leaders in high‑growth niches; leadership + growth compounding.

Map internal factors (Strengths, Weaknesses) and external factors (Opportunities, Threats), then convert the grid into a short list of strategic moves.

Reason in degrees of belief, not certainties: use base rates, ranges, and expected value—then update as evidence arrives.

Build the smallest thing that tests the riskiest assumption with real users, measure what matters, and decide to pivot, persist, or kill.

A minority of inputs often drives a majority of outcomes. Find the vital few, focus there first.

Model strategic situations where outcomes depend on your choice and others’ choices—then design moves or rules to shift the equilibrium.

Use small inputs to create large outputs by applying amplifiers — capital, code, media, process, partnerships. Leverage magnifies both gains and losses.

A product becomes more valuable as more participants join and interact. Design for liquidity and quality, not just user count.

Entrants start with cheaper, simpler offers for over-served or non-consumers, then move upmarket while incumbents ignore them.