Model: Decision and Risk

Covers strategies for sound choices under uncertainty, including probabilistic thinking and risk mitigation techniques.

  • Probabilistic Thinking

    Probabilistic Thinking

    Replace certainties with distributions and odds. Make choices on expected value…

  • Redundancy

    Redundancy

    Deliberate duplication of critical elements or capacity to avoid single points…

  • Regret Minimalisation Framework

    Regret Minimalisation Framework

    Project yourself to the decision horizon and choose the option that…

  • Second Order Thinking

    Second Order Thinking

    Consider the long-term and indirect consequences of decisions, rather than just…

  • Signal versus noise

    Signal versus noise

    Distinguish meaningful information from random fluctuation. Set thresholds and smoothing to…

  • Surface Area

    Surface Area

    Increase the surface where good things can happen and shrink the…

  • The 2 Arrows

    The 2 Arrows

    Focus where importance intersects with control. Act directly on what matters…

  • The Map is not the territory

    The Map is not the territory

    Models, metrics and narratives are representations. They are useful abstractions, not…