Model: Analysis and Framing

Explores structured approaches to problem-solving, simplifying reality, hypothesis testing, and empirical analysis.

  • Probabilistic Thinking

    Probabilistic Thinking

    Replace certainties with distributions and odds. Make choices on expected value…

  • Regression to the Mean

    Regression to the Mean

    Extreme results are partly luck. On the next measurement, luck is…

  • Second Order Thinking

    Second Order Thinking

    Consider the long-term and indirect consequences of decisions, rather than just…

  • Signal versus noise

    Signal versus noise

    Distinguish meaningful information from random fluctuation. Set thresholds and smoothing to…

  • Surface Area

    Surface Area

    Increase the surface where good things can happen and shrink the…

  • SWOT analysis

    SWOT analysis

    A fast external–internal scan: match Strengths and Weaknesses to Opportunities and…

  • The Map is not the territory

    The Map is not the territory

    Models, metrics and narratives are representations. They are useful abstractions, not…

  • Thought experiment

    Thought experiment

    A structured mental simulation to test ideas when real experiments are…

  • Occam’s Razor

    Occam’s Razor

    When multiple explanations fit the evidence, prefer the one with the…