Archives: Mental Models

Before building, map the space: the key forks, dead ends and dependencies—so you can choose a promising path and run smarter tests.

All models are simplifications. Don’t confuse the representation (map, metric, plan, narrative) with the thing itself—and update the map when facts change.

Organise everything into four buckets—Projects, Areas, Resources, Archives—so what you need is one click from action.

Use a carefully imagined scenario to test an idea’s logic, expose assumptions, and predict consequences—before you spend time or money.

Aim for vertical progress—create something truly new (0 → 1), not just more of the same (1 → n). Win by building a monopoly on a focused niche and compounding from there.

When a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, fear and miscalculation can tip competition into conflict unless incentives and guardrails are redesigned.

When perception systematically deviates—illusions, context effects—so the same data looks different.

Richard Koch’s rule to back category leaders in high‑growth niches; leadership + growth compounding.

A neutral cue paired with a meaningful event can come to trigger the response on its own.

Align your state, story and strategy; order matters.

Reason in degrees of belief, not certainties: use base rates, ranges, and expected value—then update as evidence arrives.

Add independent alternatives so one failure doesn’t stop the outcome; test failover so the backup isn’t imaginary.