Model: Decision & Risk

When a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, fear and miscalculation can tip competition into conflict unless incentives and guardrails are redesigned.

Use a carefully imagined scenario to test an idea’s logic, expose assumptions, and predict consequences—before you spend time or money.

All models are simplifications. Don’t confuse the representation (map, metric, plan, narrative) with the thing itself—and update the map when facts change.

Extreme results are usually followed by more typical ones—even without any real change.

Add independent alternatives so one failure doesn’t stop the outcome; test failover so the backup isn’t imaginary.

Reason in degrees of belief, not certainties: use base rates, ranges, and expected value—then update as evidence arrives.

The real cost of any choice is the next-best alternative you give up.

Model strategic situations where outcomes depend on your choice and others’ choices—then design moves or rules to shift the equilibrium.

For non-perishable things (ideas, books, protocols), the older it is, the longer it’s likely to last.

Don’t attribute to malice what can be explained by error, ignorance or misaligned incentives.

Deliberately leave room for error—buy below value, build above load, plan beyond the optimistic case—so mistakes and volatility don’t cause ruin.

Use small inputs to create large outputs by applying amplifiers — capital, code, media, process, partnerships. Leverage magnifies both gains and losses.