Model: Analysis & Framing

Use a carefully imagined scenario to test an idea’s logic, expose assumptions, and predict consequences—before you spend time or money.

All models are simplifications. Don’t confuse the representation (map, metric, plan, narrative) with the thing itself—and update the map when facts change.

Before building, map the space: the key forks, dead ends and dependencies—so you can choose a promising path and run smarter tests.

Map internal factors (Strengths, Weaknesses) and external factors (Opportunities, Threats), then convert the grid into a short list of strategic moves.

Extreme results are usually followed by more typical ones—even without any real change.

Reason in degrees of belief, not certainties: use base rates, ranges, and expected value—then update as evidence arrives.

The real cost of any choice is the next-best alternative you give up.

Each extra unit adds less benefit beyond a point; invest until marginal benefit ≈ marginal cost.

For non-perishable things (ideas, books, protocols), the older it is, the longer it’s likely to last.

Over‑applying a favourite tool (“to a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail”).

A single failure mode can zero the outcome (eg, safety, compliance).

Think backwards: define failure and remove its causes; ask the inverse question to see blind spots.