Zero to One
Build something fundamentally new that creates a monopoly-like position, then scale with deliberate execution and distribution.
author
Peter Thiel
Model type
About
“Zero to One” contrasts horizontal copying (1 to n) with vertical creation (0 to 1). Thiel argues durable value comes from creating new categories, earning monopoly economics, and executing with definite plans rather than vague optionality.
How it works
Monopoly over competition – superior profits fund innovation; aim to be the only one that matters in a narrow market.
Start with a small market – dominate a niche, then expand concentric circles.
Secrets – valuable truths most people don’t see; source of non-obvious advantage.
Power law – returns are concentrated; a few bets drive outcomes.
Definite vs indefinite – plan and commit; don’t rely on portfolio optionality alone.
Last-mover advantage – compound moats to be the enduring winner.
Distribution matters – sales, channels, and GTM are part of the product.
Start with a small market – dominate a niche, then expand concentric circles.
Secrets – valuable truths most people don’t see; source of non-obvious advantage.
Power law – returns are concentrated; a few bets drive outcomes.
Definite vs indefinite – plan and commit; don’t rely on portfolio optionality alone.
Last-mover advantage – compound moats to be the enduring winner.
Distribution matters – sales, channels, and GTM are part of the product.
Use cases
Venture screening – test if an idea can own a niche and expand with network or scale effects.
Product strategy – define the initial beachhead and moat, then sequence market expansion.
Equity story – articulate the secret insight, monopoly path, and compounding economics.
Org design – hire for definite builders; align to a single plan rather than diffuse projects.
Product strategy – define the initial beachhead and moat, then sequence market expansion.
Equity story – articulate the secret insight, monopoly path, and compounding economics.
Org design – hire for definite builders; align to a single plan rather than diffuse projects.
How to apply
State the contrarian truth you believe and the evidence behind it.
Define the beachhead market small enough to dominate within 12–24 months.
Specify the moat (network effects, scale economies, switching costs, IP, data) and how it strengthens over time.
Design distribution early: channel, sales motion, and unit economics.
Plan concentric expansion into adjacent segments once you hit dominance thresholds.
Define the beachhead market small enough to dominate within 12–24 months.
Specify the moat (network effects, scale economies, switching costs, IP, data) and how it strengthens over time.
Design distribution early: channel, sales motion, and unit economics.
Plan concentric expansion into adjacent segments once you hit dominance thresholds.
pitfalls and cautions
“Monopoly” hand-waving – no credible moat or dominance metric.
Too large a starting market – can’t concentrate advantages; lose to incumbents.
Idea without distribution – great tech that never reaches customers.
Indefinite portfolio thinking – busy pipeline but no decisive plan.
Too large a starting market – can’t concentrate advantages; lose to incumbents.
Idea without distribution – great tech that never reaches customers.
Indefinite portfolio thinking – busy pipeline but no decisive plan.