Thucydides Trap
When a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, fear and miscalculation can tip competition into conflict unless incentives and guardrails are redesigned.
Author
Graham T. Allison, drawing on Thucydides
Model type
About
Thucydides noted that Sparta’s fear of a rising Athens made war more likely. Modern versions generalise this: large power transitions – in states or markets – raise the risk of spirals, as incumbents try to contain and challengers push to revise the order. It is a tendency, not a law: institutions, credible commitments and off-ramps can keep rivalry bounded. See also power transition theory and security dilemma.
How it works
Incumbent incentives – defend status, alliances, standards and rents; consider pre-emption or denial moves.
Challenger incentives – seek access, prestige, resources and rule-setting power; press grey-zone advantages.
Perception gaps – each side reads the other’s deterrence as aggression and its own moves as “defensive”.
Escalation ladders – tit-for-tat across economic, technological, information and military domains.
Stabilisers – credible communication channels, issue-linkage trades, arms control, economic interdependence, verified red lines.
Use-cases
Geopolitics – assessing great-power rivalries, alliance strain, arms races, tech export controls.
Business strategy – platform incumbents vs insurgents, standard wars, distributor lock-in, regulatory contests.
Org politics – legacy business units vs high-growth bets competing for mandate and budget.
Step-by-step
Map the structure – capabilities, growth rates, coalition depth, choke points, and contested standards on both sides.
Name red lines and goals – write what each side must protect vs where it can trade concessions.
Design guardrails – hotlines, incident codes of conduct, crisis playbooks, transparency mechanisms, independent verification.
Shift from zero-sum to bounded rivalry – create issue-linkage (give on X, gain on Y), phased de-escalation, confidence-building steps.
Avoid self-fulfilling moves – limit symbolic humiliations, surprise doctrinal shifts, and brittle ultimatums.
Business analogue – pick winnable wedges rather than frontal assaults; interoperate where it serves you; pre-commit to quality and reliability to win regulator and partner trust.
Plan off-ramps – concrete conditions to pause or reverse escalatory policies; publish them to reduce misreadings.
Pitfalls & Cautions
Determinism – treating the trap as destiny. Leadership and institutions matter.
Selection bias – counting only the wars and ignoring peaceful transitions.
Over-militarising – neglecting economics, tech, standards and narratives where contests are decided.
Domestic politics blind spot – leaders with fragile coalitions take riskier stands; model internal constraints.
Escalation by accident – opaque red lines and poor signalling raise hazard rates.
Corporate misuse – invoking “inevitable war” to justify reckless strategy or ethics lapses.
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