The Idea Maze
A method to systematically explore the space of approaches to an idea — mapping branches, dead ends, and success paths before committing scarce time and capital.
author
Popularised by Chris Dixon (building on Balaji Srinivasan’s teaching)
Model type
About
Dixon framed startup creation as navigating a maze: the same high-level idea has many routes, most of which fail for predictable reasons. Winning routes depend on timing, complements, regulation, GTM, and the sequence of execution.
How it works – what to map
Histories – prior attempts, why they failed/succeeded, and what changed since (tech costs, behaviour, infra).
Constraints – bottleneck resources (data, supply, liquidity), regulatory hurdles, complements you must secure.
GTM – initial wedge, distribution channels, willingness-to-pay; how you cross the cold-start gap.
Moats – compounding advantages (network effects, switching costs, learning curves, data scale).
Sequencing – order of features/markets that progressively de-risk and unlock the moat.
Kill rules – observable thresholds that end a branch quickly (CAC/LTV, retention, supply fill, compliance).
Constraints – bottleneck resources (data, supply, liquidity), regulatory hurdles, complements you must secure.
GTM – initial wedge, distribution channels, willingness-to-pay; how you cross the cold-start gap.
Moats – compounding advantages (network effects, switching costs, learning curves, data scale).
Sequencing – order of features/markets that progressively de-risk and unlock the moat.
Kill rules – observable thresholds that end a branch quickly (CAC/LTV, retention, supply fill, compliance).
Use cases
Venture formation – compare wedges and market entries for the same thesis; pick the highest-probability path.
Product strategy – decide feature order and partner dependencies before scaling.
Commercial due diligence – reconstruct the target’s explored branches; test if the remaining path is credible.
R&D portfolio – run multiple low-cost probes across branches; double down where signals compound.
Product strategy – decide feature order and partner dependencies before scaling.
Commercial due diligence – reconstruct the target’s explored branches; test if the remaining path is credible.
R&D portfolio – run multiple low-cost probes across branches; double down where signals compound.
How to apply
Define the objective in one sentence (who, job-to-be-done, outcome).
Map the branches: wedges, customer segments, biz models, key complements, regulatory paths.
Write kill rules and success thresholds for each branch.
Probe cheaply: concierge tests, landing pages, design partners, regulatory pre-reads.
Sequence from the branch with the fastest compounding signal to the one that needs it.
Record the maze (assumptions, evidence, kills) so learning persists across pivots.
Map the branches: wedges, customer segments, biz models, key complements, regulatory paths.
Write kill rules and success thresholds for each branch.
Probe cheaply: concierge tests, landing pages, design partners, regulatory pre-reads.
Sequence from the branch with the fastest compounding signal to the one that needs it.
Record the maze (assumptions, evidence, kills) so learning persists across pivots.
pitfalls and cautions
Cargo-cult patterns – copying another firm’s path without matching their complements or timing.
Ignoring distribution – elegant product routes that can’t win channels or liquidity.
Analysis paralysis – mapping without timeboxed probes; the maze is learned by walking.
No kill rules – sunk-cost drift down dead corridors.
Wrong sequence – tackling hardest constraints before securing compounding signals.
Ignoring distribution – elegant product routes that can’t win channels or liquidity.
Analysis paralysis – mapping without timeboxed probes; the maze is learned by walking.
No kill rules – sunk-cost drift down dead corridors.
Wrong sequence – tackling hardest constraints before securing compounding signals.