The Idea Maze
Before building, map the space: the key forks, dead ends and dependencies—so you can choose a promising path and run smarter tests.
Author
Chris Dixon (2013; building on Balaji S. Srinivasan’s “Startup Engineering” lectures)
Model type
About
Chris Dixon’s Idea Maze frames startup/product creation as navigating a maze of choices—technology, business model, go-to-market, timing, regulation, and more. Great founders study prior attempts, imagine how the maze might shift, and plan sequence and wedge entry points before running experiments. Use it as a thinking tool to reduce naive detours, not as a crystal ball.
How it works
Map dimensions – tech approach, target segment, price model, distribution, data/standards, complements, regulation. Each creates forks.
Sequence matters – decide build order (what must precede what), entry wedge, and triggers that open new corridors (platform shifts, cost curves).
Study prior art – list who tried what, why they failed/succeeded, and what has changed (devices, bandwidth, APIs, costs).
Choose corridors, not points – prepare 2–3 plausible routes with pre-defined switch rules if facts contradict assumptions.
Probe, don’t pontificate – run cheap tests to validate corridor assumptions; update the map as reality pushes back.
Use-cases
Zero-to-one product/venture ideation.
Entering regulated or multi-sided markets (payments, health, marketplaces).
Major pivots where distribution or complements change the viable path.
Technical strategy when platform or cost curves are in flux (AI, edge, new standards).
Step-by-step
Define the mission & constraints – problem, target user, must-haves, guardrails (runway, compliance).
List forks per dimension – e.g., self-serve vs sales-led, SDK vs SaaS, centralised vs on-device, regulated vs unregulated niches.
Study the maze – 10+ historical attempts; note why now (what walls moved: tech, policy, behaviour). Add likely incumbent responses.
Draw 2–3 corridors – each with a wedge (the smallest use case you can dominate), build order, and distribution plan.
Write falsifiable assumptions per corridor – critical uncertainties, success metrics, kill/switch thresholds.
Run probes – smallest tests that hit the riskiest assumptions (design partnerships, fake doors, concierge pilots).
Update the map – double down on corridors that clear thresholds; prune dead ends; log learnings for new entrants.
Revisit on regime shifts – new platforms, cost drops, or rule changes can open hidden doors; remap quarterly.
Pitfalls & Cautions
Retrospective coherence – the maze can look obvious only after success; treat it as a planning aid, not prophecy. (Critiques: execution and effectual, improvisational learning often dominate.)
Over-planning – months mapping, little learning; bias to short probes.
Ignoring distribution – great tech in a corridor with no repeatable channel.
False “why now” – hype without a real wall moving (cost/UX/regulation).
Single-path dogma – lock-in to one corridor; keep alternates with pre-set switch rules.
Recent Mental Models
Click below to learn other mental models
The Idea Maze
Before building, map the space: the key forks, dead ends and dependencies—so you can choose a promising path and run smarter tests.
Thucydides Trap
When a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, fear and miscalculation can tip competition into conflict unless incentives and guardrails are redesigned.
Zero to One
Aim for vertical progress—create something truly new (0 → 1), not just more of the same (1 → n). Win by building a monopoly on a focused niche and compounding from there.
