# Barnaby Robson > Personal site of Barnaby Robson: long-form essays on investing, productivity, photography, travel and cooking; book notes; a mental-models library; photo galleries. Every essay and book note has a markdown twin at the canonical URL with `.md` appended. - Canonical HTML pages: `https://barnabyrobson.org//`; markdown twins: `https://barnabyrobson.org/.md` - [RSS feed](https://barnabyrobson.org/rss.xml) - [XML sitemap](https://barnabyrobson.org/sitemap-index.xml) ## Essays - [80/20: The Subconscious](https://barnabyrobson.org/80-20-subconscious.md): Part 4 of the 80/20 series. The most extreme imbalance sits inside your own head, and almost nobody uses it on purpose. - [80/20: For Life](https://barnabyrobson.org/80-20-for-life.md): Part 3 of the 80/20 series. The same imbalance runs through a single life: a fifth of your time produces most of what you achieve and enjoy. - [All That Glisters: The Gold the MPF Won’t Let You Hold](https://barnabyrobson.org/hong-kongs-mpf-visualised.md): Data visuals on 10 years of HK’s MPF with narration from the great Bard. - [Making it up, changing my mind, and learning to COPE with AI](https://barnabyrobson.org/on-making-things-up-changing-your-mind-and-cope.md): AI’s effect on your job is still anyone’s guess. The practical response is getting good at directing it, and COPE gives you a framework for doing exactly that. - [We are all going to have to become engineers](https://barnabyrobson.org/we-are-all-going-to-have-to-become-engineers.md): What tinkering with agents at home taught me about deploying them at work - [America – A Wider England](https://barnabyrobson.org/america-a-wider-england.md): An eyewateringly large dinner, a business class seat that doesn’t recline, and a NASA engineer who changed history with a nine-page memo. First impressions of America at forty-five. - [Strategies and Tools for Coping in the Agentic Age](https://barnabyrobson.org/strategies-and-tools-for-coping-in-the-agentic-age.md): The bottleneck used to be information overload. Now AI handles the mechanical work — and the real challenge is knowing what to pay attention to. - [China – Singapore at Scale](https://barnabyrobson.org/china-singapore-at-scale.md): Perfect highways, better consumer products than the West, and a surveillance state that makes it all feel slightly too clean. Notes on a country that builds while others deliberate. - [India – Not Bad](https://barnabyrobson.org/india-not-bad.md): Ten days driving cross-country from Delhi to Udaipur. Traffic as a contact sport, English better than yours, and a country that oscillates between boundless energy and voluntary chaos. - [80/20: The Business](https://barnabyrobson.org/80-20-and-corporate-success.md): Part 2 of the 80/20 series focusses on corporate success. - [80/20: The Unbalanced Universe](https://barnabyrobson.org/the-unbalanced-universe.md): Part 1 of the 80/20 series. Why reality is unbalanced: a vital few causes produce most of the results. - [The End of the Nvidia Tax?](https://barnabyrobson.org/nvidiatax.md): AI’s cost base is beginning to shift. Gemini 3 and Anthropic’s move to TPUs show that state-of-the-art models no longer require Nvidia hardware. - [What I love and hate about Crypto in 2025 (in Memes)](https://barnabyrobson.org/crypto-2025-memes.md): A meandering, self-serving reflection on the state of crypto in 2025 — from the 2017 ICO bubble through DeFi summer, FTX fraud, and the Black Friday 2025 crash. Part analysis, part therapy, all memes. - [The Multi‑Trillion Dollar AI Compute Bet](https://barnabyrobson.org/the-multi-trillion-dollar-ai-compute-bet.md): Big tech are making a huge bet on AI Compute. Whether this pays off is the key investment question of 2025. - [On Trump’s Tariffs](https://barnabyrobson.org/trumps-tariffs.md): Economists and Businessmen invoke Ricardo – trade should flow where it’s cheapest. But look closer, and most countries don’t play by the free trade rules they advocate. - [The Electricity Economy](https://barnabyrobson.org/the-electricity-economy.md): A one-page infographic on the electricity economy. - [Following the money in AI](https://barnabyrobson.org/following-the-money-in-ai.md): Learnings from five podcasts featuring Jensen Huang, Satya Nadella and others in early 2025 - [The Three Grid Concept](https://barnabyrobson.org/three-grid-concept.md): An outline of Micky Malka’s Three Grid Concept, with implications and visuals - [The Electricity Economy](https://barnabyrobson.org/a-new-energy-imperative-nuclears-growing-importance-in-corporate-national-strategy.md): Why Electricity is the New Battleground for Global Competitiveness - [Nailing brand colours in Midjourney (a follow-up post)](https://barnabyrobson.org/nailing-brand-colours-in-midjourney-a-follow-up-post.md): Walk through on how to generate specific colours (using srefs) in Midjourney – an AI image generating app. - [AI Stack Economics](https://barnabyrobson.org/ai-stack-economics.md): Exploring the AI value stack: From compute hardware to end-users, where will the greatest value accrue in this evolving landscape? - [The Future of Marketplaces](https://barnabyrobson.org/future-of-marketplaces.md): Unpacking the rise and fall of 2-sided marketplaces: A look at the network effects that fueled their growth—and the challenges unraveling their value in a post-free-money era. - [Navigating inaccurate data & misleading narratives](https://barnabyrobson.org/bad-data-incorrect-narratives.md): Deciphering Truths: Navigating Through the Maze of Inaccurate Data and Misleading Narratives. - [State > Story > Strategy](https://barnabyrobson.org/state-story-strategy.md): How to master your mindset and get productive with the State > Story > Strategy mental model. - [The Future of Progress](https://barnabyrobson.org/the-future-of-progress.md): Thoughts on how to navigate the future with the Tech vs. Global Shift model: Embrace accelerating technology (Vertical Progress) while adapting to deglobalization (Horizontal Regression) to unlock growth opportunities. - [Reimagining Literature: How AI is Transforming the Way We Visualise Books](https://barnabyrobson.org/text-to-cinema.md): My workflow for recreating scenes from books using MidJourney - [MidJourney – the unexpected challenge of colour (and how to overcome)](https://barnabyrobson.org/midjourney-the-unexpected-challenge-of-colour-and-how-to-overcome.md): Mastering MidJourney Colors without HEX Codes – using Named Palettes to Nail Branded Visions. - [Strategies and tools for coping in the information age](https://barnabyrobson.org/strategies-and-tools-for-coping-in-the-information-age.md): Taming the Info Tsunami: Strategies, Tools, and AI-Powered Hacks I use to Conquer Overload and Spark Insights - [Global debt – walking on shaky ground](https://barnabyrobson.org/global-debt-living-on-shaky-ground.md): Global debt is at an all-time high, with governments, businesses, and households all facing increasing stresses due to higher interest rates. - [Monetary policy – Interest rates, higher for longer](https://barnabyrobson.org/monetary-policy-interest-rates-higher-for-longer.md): Decoding Inflation Drivers, Fed Pivots, and the High-Rate Reckoning Reshaping Investments - [The collapse of FTX – Thoughts and opinions…](https://barnabyrobson.org/the-collapse-of-ftx.md): Analysis of the background and what investors missed. - [Reasons to be cheerful – Crypto edition](https://barnabyrobson.org/reasons-to-be-cheerful-crypto-edition.md): Reasons to Be Cheerful despite the bear market in Crypto: Emerging Innovations in DeSo, PBDAs, Web3 Gaming, Big Tech Adoption, and NFTs Signal the Start of a New Cycle - [Investing like a professional](https://barnabyrobson.org/investing-like-a-professional.md): This is an article documenting how I plan to add structure to my investing process. - [2022 Macro Investment predictions](https://barnabyrobson.org/2022-investment-predictions.md): Macro thesis on 2022 investment landscape - [Axie Infinity – Investment Analysis](https://barnabyrobson.org/axieinfinity.md): Write-up on Axie Infinity, currently the world’s biggest P2E game. Written from an investment perspective. - [Classic images which inspire me](https://barnabyrobson.org/classic-images-which-inspire-me.md): A collection of classic images which influence my photography and inspire me to take photographs - [Investment Landscape 2021](https://barnabyrobson.org/investment-landscape-2021.md): 2021 Investment Landscape - [COVID19 – Winners & Losers?](https://barnabyrobson.org/covid19-winners-losers.md): As the COVID-19 situation started to look ominous and the quantity of news on the topic reached overwhelming levels, I decided to mind-map thoughts on implications across each industry, and sub-sector. I then tried to link the sectors to large/prominent listed companies, so one could (seek to) quantitively track these ‘predictions’. - [C19 & finding silver linings](https://barnabyrobson.org/covid-19-finding-silver-linings.md): 2019 will go down as the ‘worst of times’ for many in Hong Kong and 2020 feels like it has started as a ‘winter of despair’. COVID-19 couldn’t really have come at a more inopportune time. Outside Hong Kong and China it has been an extraordinary fortnight. It’s become evident to most people that the impacts of the virus will be global, with deep economic implications. - [The National @ Alexandra Palace, London 2013](https://barnabyrobson.org/the-national-london-2013.md): The National Live in London 2013 – Images from the Alexandra Palace Gig - [Legacy Nikon Glass on micro-four-thirds, and a comparison to film](https://barnabyrobson.org/legacy-nikon-glass-on-micro-four-thirds-and-a-comparison-to-film.md): Nikon (G) – M4/3 lens mount In a fit of boredom I recently bought a Nikon (g) to M 4/3 adapter from a company called K&F concept, via this ebay seller for GBP 10: A brief intro to K&F mount adapters is available at the link below I’ve been using the mount with two Nikon […] - [Fair Warung Bale – My favourite Restaurant in Indonesia](https://barnabyrobson.org/fair-warung-bale.md): I think the title says it all. We stayed in Ubud for four days and went to this restaurant every day. I’ve been going back there for 10 years + now (every time i go to Ubud). Address Jl. Sriwedari No. 6 | 100m Up From Main Road Ubud, Ubud 80571, Indonesia The food Not […] - [Jakarta eats – yummy pork medan noodles in Tangerang](https://barnabyrobson.org/quick-eats-jakarta-yummy-pork-medan-noodles-in-tangerang-jakarta.md): Name: Bakmi Medan Kebon Jahe My kind of restaurant – one item on the menu (as pictured). Three size options – Small, Medium or Large. - [Local Tips: Bima Bagus – Affordable framing in Jakarta](https://barnabyrobson.org/local-tips-bima-bagus-affordable-framing-in-jakarta.md): I’d been looking to get some photos printed and framed for a while. I’d had two quotes for c. IDR 400k to frame a single A3 photo – black wooden frame and white 6cm mount. A friend at the fantastic Galeri Hadiprana in Kemang recommended Bima Bagus. Hadiprana use Bima Bagus for some of their […] - [Cycling in Jakarta – a few thoughts](https://barnabyrobson.org/cycling-in-jakarta-a-few-thoughts.md): Being recently inflicted by a bout of cycling-mad-itus, these were two of my top questions, on prepping for a move from London to Jakarta: 1) Is it at all possible to cycle in Jakarta (i.e. traffic, road conditions, etc.)? and do people? 2) Should I ship my road bike (given the expense and difficulty) or […] - [Thinking of relocating to Jakarta? Expat moving advice.](https://barnabyrobson.org/thinking-of-relocating-to-jakarta-expat-moving-advice.md): Quick notes for expats thinking of relocating to Indonesia. Based on my experience in 2014 - [Galeri Pot in Kemang Timur | Home decor in Jakarta](https://barnabyrobson.org/galeri-pot-in-kemang-timur-home-decor-in-jakarta.md): beautiful lamps and great prices - [Adventures in Analog – 3rd batch (rolls 6 – 9)](https://barnabyrobson.org/adventures-in-analog-3rd-batch-rolls-6-9.md): After my childish earlier attempts with the Nikon FM3A and Pentax LX, i seem to be getting into the swing of things with film SLRs. - [6 days in Cyprus](https://barnabyrobson.org/6-days-in-cyprus.md): Notes from 6 days in Cyprus in June 2014. - [Photoessay: up in the air](https://barnabyrobson.org/photoessay-up-in-the-air.md): All taken with the iphone 5 on route from Luxembourg to London City. - [Embracing the commute + photography on the go](https://barnabyrobson.org/embracing-the-commute.md): For nine years often at the end of my commute i felt myself teetering on the edge of anger and rage – Delayed buses / packed tubes / cramped spaces / fume and sweat choked air / squeezed in / disagreeable odours / thoughtless people… True, there were some cool moments: But they were few […] - [Adventures in Analog – 2nd batch (Rolls 3 – 6)](https://barnabyrobson.org/adventures-in-analog-second-batch-rolls-3-6.md): After the euphoria of getting my first two rolls of film back…the second batch has been a massive anti-climax. I’d previously shot with the Contax T2 and Ricoh GR1v – two high end film compact cameras. The films were developed by Snappy Snaps in Soho and I was really happy with the results. Since then i’d […] - [Days of being wild..](https://barnabyrobson.org/days-of-being-wild.md): Nottingham University c. 2001. Happy memories.. Just had this film processed and scanned by mistake – Kodak Advantix – Can’t believe how well the film lasted… - [Friday evening in central London](https://barnabyrobson.org/friday-night-in-london.md): Just some photos from a friday night in central london. If there’s no lens info they were taken with the Nokton 42.5mm f/0.95: - [Adventures in Analog – 1st batch (rolls 1 – 2)](https://barnabyrobson.org/adventures-in-analog-first-film.md): Experiments with film photography using a Contax T2 and Ricoh GR1v - [Voigtlander Nokton 42.5mm f/0.95 – Micro four thirds lens – Low light samples](https://barnabyrobson.org/voigtlander-nokton-42-5mm-f0-95-micro-four-thirds-lens-low-light-samples.md): Low light samples from one of the fastest lenses on m4/3. - [Kuala Lumpur in a day](https://barnabyrobson.org/malaysia-in-a-day.md): Local tips for a day or two in KL. - [Singapore in a day](https://barnabyrobson.org/singapore-in-a-day.md): Spending a day or two in Singapore and wondering what to do? – this is for you! - [E-M1 – Shooting Tips](https://barnabyrobson.org/e-m1-my-settings.md): Configuring and street shooting with the E-M1. - [The National – Alexandra Palace](https://barnabyrobson.org/the-national-alexandra-palace-15-november-2013.md): The National live at Alexandra Palace, 15 November 2013 — a photo diary from the floor: blue stage light, smoke, and the crowd in silhouette. - [Contax T2 v Ricoh GR1v… in pictures](https://barnabyrobson.org/contax-t2-v-ricoh-gr1v-in-pictures.md): Side by side images of the Contax T2 and Ricoh GR1v film camera. Two of the best film automatic fixed focal cameras. - [Olympus 75mm Field Test (On E-M5) – 2 weeks in Burma.](https://barnabyrobson.org/olympus-75mm-field-test-on-e-m5-2-weeks-in-burma.md): Mounted to the Olympus E-M5, the Olympus 75mm 1.8 is near photographic perfection - [Myanmar – Trip Report.](https://barnabyrobson.org/myanmar-trip-report.md): Quick trip notes from Myanmar (2012). - [Taking a look back – my top 12 photographs of 2012](https://barnabyrobson.org/taking-a-look-back-my-top-12-photographs-of-2012.md): 2012, the year that I fell in love with photography. - [5 days in Sicily](https://barnabyrobson.org/5-days-in-sicily.md): A great break in Sicily, with stays in Palermo, Taormina and Syracuse - [Fanqie Chao Dan (Tomatoes and fried Egg)](https://barnabyrobson.org/fanqie-chao-dan-tomatoes-and-fried-egg.md): Cheap, delicious dish anyone can easily cook. Mother-in-law’s recipe. - [Red cooked pork steak (Hong Shao Pai Gu)](https://barnabyrobson.org/chinese-stewed-pork-steak.md): Mother-in-law’s recipe for a cheap, simple and delicious pork dish. Yum! ## Book notes Reading notes, indexed at [Notes from](https://barnabyrobson.org/resources/notes-from/). - [From Third World to First](https://barnabyrobson.org/from-third-world-to-first.md): Notes from the book From Third World to First by Lee Kuan Yew. - [How Elon Works](https://barnabyrobson.org/how-elon-works.md): Notes from the Founders Podcast on Elon Musk - [Infinite vs. Finite Games: Rethinking AI Rivalry](https://barnabyrobson.org/infinite-vs-finite-games-rethinking-ai-rivalry.md): Notes from Simon Sinek’s The Infinite Game – and parallels to the AI “Race” - [Breakneck](https://barnabyrobson.org/breakneck.md): Notes from the book Breakneck by Dan Wang. - [Meditations](https://barnabyrobson.org/meditations.md): Notes from the book Meditations by Marcus Aurelius. - [The Black Swan](https://barnabyrobson.org/black-swan.md): The central idea of the book concerns our blindness with respect to randomness, particularly large deviations. - [The Beginning of Infinity](https://barnabyrobson.org/beginning-of-infinity.md): Notes from the book, ‘The Beginning of Infinity’ by David Deutsch. - [Intellectuals](https://barnabyrobson.org/intellectuals.md): Notes from the book intellectuals by Paul Johnson - [The Anthology of Balaji](https://barnabyrobson.org/anthology-of-balaji.md): Notes from the book The Anthology of Balaji, by Eric Jorgenson - [Richer, Wiser, Happier](https://barnabyrobson.org/richer-wiser-happier.md): Notes from the book Richer, Wiser Happier – on what makes a great investor – by William Green - [Same as ever: Timeless lessons on risk, opportunity and living a good life](https://barnabyrobson.org/same-as-ever.md): Notes from the book by Morgan Housel on optimising risk, seizing opportunity, and living your best life - [Poor Charlie’s Almanac](https://barnabyrobson.org/poor-charlies-almanac.md): Notes from the book Poor Charlie’s Almanac which sets out Charlie Munger’s speeches. - [Thinking, Fast and Slow](https://barnabyrobson.org/thinking-fast-and-slow.md): Notes from the book Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman - [Extreme Ownership](https://barnabyrobson.org/extreme-ownership.md): Notes on the Navy SEAL secrets to leadership success and failure, blending combat lessons with actionable insights for life and business. - [Atlas Shrugged (Who is John Galt?)](https://barnabyrobson.org/atlas-shrugged.md): Notes from the book Atlas Shrugged by Ayn Rand - [The Hard things about Hard Things](https://barnabyrobson.org/hard-things.md): Notes form the book by Ben Horowitz on the problems that confront leaders every day, sharing the insights he’s gained developing, managing, selling, buying, investing in, and supervising technology companies. - [The Rational Optimist](https://barnabyrobson.org/rational-optimist.md): Notes from the book. The Rational Optimist by Matt Ridley. The book discusses much including economics, history and evolution. - [The Star Principle & making better investment decisions](https://barnabyrobson.org/the-star-principle-better-investment-decisions.md): Takeaways from the book the Star Principle by Richard Koch in which he shares the secrets of his success – and shows how you too can identify and enrich yourself from ‘Stars’. - [What you do is who you are](https://barnabyrobson.org/what-you-do-is-who-you-are.md): Notes from the book by Ben Horowitz on culture, with practical advice on building the culture you desire. - [Atomic Habits – 1% better every day](https://barnabyrobson.org/atomic-habits-1-better-every-day.md): Notes from the book on habits and self improvement by James Clear - [Principles for dealing with the changing world order](https://barnabyrobson.org/changing-world-order.md): Dalio’s Cycles: Understanding the Ebb and Flow of Empires, Debt, and Geopolitics and where we are in these cycles and what this means for the future - [The Almanack of Naval Ravikant](https://barnabyrobson.org/almanack-naval-ravikant.md): Key quotes from the book ‘The Almanack of Naval Ravikant’ - [The Psychology of Money](https://barnabyrobson.org/the-psychology-of-money.md): Key notes from the book, the Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel. ## Mental models - [1000 True Fans](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/1000-true-fans/): Kevin Kelly’s rule of thumb for creators and niche businesses: a direct base of ~1,000 true fans can sustain a venture if ARPU and retention are healthy. - [5 Ws of Communication](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/5-ws-of-communication/): A compact briefing frame that forces concretes: Who, What, When, Where, Why (and How). Use it to make messages decision-ready and prevent gaps that derail execution. - [9 Levers of Value](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/9-levers-of-value/): A KPMG framework that links what to aim for (financial ambition), where to play (business model), and how to win (operating model) across nine levers. - [Activation Energy](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/activation-energy/): Borrowed from chemistry and habit design: reduce the upfront effort to make the desired action easier than the default. - [Adaptation](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/adaptation/): Improve fit to a changing environment by shortening feedback loops, trying small bets, and keeping options open. - [Agency (High / Low)](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/agency-high-low/): A practical lens for how people approach problems: low-agency waits for circumstances; high-agency creates options and moves first. - [Algorithms](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/algorithms/): Move work from mystery to heuristic to algorithm – start with a hunch, then simplify until the decision is repeatable and automatable. - [Alloying](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/alloying/): Combine complementary capabilities or assets so the composite is stronger than the parts—materials science as a strategy metaphor. - [Anti-Fragility](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/anti-fragility/): Design systems that gain from volatility and shocks, not just survive them. - [Asymmetries](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/asymmetries/): Exploit one‑sided payoffs or costs (eg, convex bets, reputation effects) where small inputs can create outsized gains. - [Black Swan](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/black-swan/): Nassim Taleb’s term for rare, high‑impact, retrospectively ‘obvious’ events. - [Bottlenecks](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/bottlenecks/): Flow moves at the pace of its constraint—improve the bottleneck to improve the whole. - [Break-Even Graph](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/break-even-graph/): Visualises the volume at which revenue equals total cost; clarifies pricing, fixed vs variable costs, and margin of safety. - [Breakpoints](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/breakpoints/): Thresholds where behaviour shifts non‑linearly—small pushes create big changes once the system crosses a point. - [Catalysts](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/catalysts/): Triggers that accelerate a reaction or strategy without being consumed—partnerships, regulation, or technology shocks. - [Chaos Dynamics](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/chaos-dynamics/): Sensitivity to initial conditions and non‑linear feedbacks can make long‑range prediction impossible; manage by bounds, not points. - [Churn](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/churn/): The rate customers leave. - [Circle of Competence](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/circle-of-competence/): Operate where you truly understand cause and effect; stay inside the circle, expand it deliberately, and partner outside it. - [Climbing the Wrong Hill](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/climbing-the-wrong-hill/): Greedy improvements can trap you on a nearby peak; sometimes you must go down or sideways to reach a higher hill. - [Cognitive Bias](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/cognitive-bias/): Systematic shortcuts in thinking that create predictable errors. Know the patterns; design decisions and communication to counter their effects. - [Cognitive Dissonance](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/cognitive-dissonance/): Festinger’s insight: when beliefs and actions clash, we rationalise. - [Combinations vs Permutations](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/combinations-vs-permutations/): Order matters → permutations. Order doesn’t → combinations. Adjust for with/without replacement. - [Comparative Advantage](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/comparative-advantage/): Specialise in what you produce at lower opportunity cost and trade the rest. - [Competitive Advantage](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/competitive-advantage/): A durable edge that lets you create more value or deliver it at lower cost than rivals — and keep it via isolating mechanisms. - [Complex Adaptive Systems](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/complex-adaptive-systems/): Many interacting agents following simple rules create emergent behaviour. - [Compound Interest](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/compound-interest/): Compound Interest is a practical lens to frame decisions and reduce error. - [Confirmation Bias](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/confirmation-bias/): Confirmation Bias is a practical lens to frame decisions and reduce error. - [COPE Framework](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/cope-framework/): Create once, publish everywhere by structuring content and separating it from presentation so one source feeds many channels. - [Cost-Benefit Analysis](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/cost-benefit-analysis/): Plot initiatives by benefit vs cost to spot quick wins, staged bets and time-sinks. - [Decision Tree](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/decision-tree/): A visual of sequential decisions with probabilities and payoffs; fold back to compute expected value. - [Deming’s 14 Points](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/demings-14-points/): A management system for building quality into work by reducing variation, improving processes, and aligning everyone to long-term purpose. - [Disruptive Innovation](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/disruptive-innovation/): Entrants start with cheaper, simpler offers for over-served or non-consumers, then move upmarket while incumbents ignore them. - [Distributions](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/distributions/): Outcomes don’t all follow the normal curve. Know the shape and tails of your data and choose metrics, forecasts and safeguards to match. - [Double-Entry Bookkeeping](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/double-entry-bookkeeping/): Every transaction records equal debits and credits; ensures the books balance and errors surface. - [Economies of Scale](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/economies-of-scale/): Produce more to lower average cost by spreading fixed costs, improving specialisation and buying better—until coordination costs bite. - [Eisenhower Matrix](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/eisenhower-matrix/): Prioritise by importance, not urgency: Do, Schedule, Delegate, or Eliminate. - [Falsification](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/falsification/): Popper’s rule: scientific theories must be testable and killable by evidence. - [Fat Protocol Thesis](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/fat-protocol-thesis/): In blockchains, value tends to concentrate at the shared protocol layer rather than the application layer, though modular stacks and wallets can shift where value accrues. - [Feedback Loops](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/feedback-loops/): Reinforcing and balancing loops drive growth and stability (Meadows). - [First Principles Thinking](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/first-principles-thinking/): Reduce a problem to its fundamental truths, then reason up from there—ignoring defaults, habits and analogy. - [Flywheels](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/flywheels/): Compounding loops that accelerate with momentum; popularised by Jim Collins. - [Framing Effect](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/framing-effect/): Choices shift with wording. The same facts, framed differently, lead to different decisions. - [Gall’s Law](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/galls-law/): Complex systems that work evolve from simple systems that worked. Start small, get it working, then scale. - [Game Theory](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/game-theory/): Model strategic situations where outcomes depend on your choice and others’ choices—then design moves or rules to shift the equilibrium. - [Hanlon’s Razor](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/hanlons-razor/): Don’t attribute to malice what can be explained by error, ignorance or misaligned incentives. - [Ikigai](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/ikigai/): A practical way to align what you love, what you’re good at, what the world needs, and what pays—while honouring small, everyday sources of meaning. - [Inversion](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/inversion/): Think backwards: define failure and remove its causes; ask the inverse question to see blind spots. - [Law of Diminishing Returns](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/law-of-diminishing-returns/): Each extra unit adds less benefit beyond a point; invest until marginal benefit ≈ marginal cost. - [Leverage](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/leverage/): Use small inputs to create large outputs by applying amplifiers — capital, code, media, process, partnerships. Leverage magnifies both gains and losses. - [Lindy Effect](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/lindy-effect/): For non-perishable things (ideas, books, protocols), the older it is, the longer it’s likely to last. - [Lollapalooza Effects](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/lollapalooza-effects/): Munger’s term for multiple biases/incentives acting together to produce extreme outcomes. - [Man with a Hammer Syndrome](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/man-with-a-hammer-syndrome/): Over‑applying a favourite tool (“to a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail”). - [Margin of Safety](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/margin-of-safety/): Deliberately leave room for error—buy below value, build above load, plan beyond the optimistic case—so mistakes and volatility don’t cause ruin. - [Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/maslows-hierarchy-of-needs/): A motivation heuristic: people prioritise unmet lower-order needs before higher ones. Use it to diagnose constraints and design incentives. - [Minimum Viable Product](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/minimum-viable-product/): Build the smallest thing that tests the riskiest assumption with real users, measure what matters, and decide to pivot, persist, or kill. - [Multiplying by Zero](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/multiplying-by-zero/): A single failure mode can zero the outcome (eg, safety, compliance). - [Munger’s Tendencies](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/mungers-tendencies/): Munger’s catalogue of 25 psychological tendencies that systematically distort judgement — and how to guard against them. - [Network Effects](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/network-effects/): A product becomes more valuable as more participants join and interact. Design for liquidity and quality, not just user count. - [Occam’s Razor](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/occams-razor/): When multiple explanations fit the evidence, prefer the one with the fewest necessary assumptions. - [Opportunity Cost](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/opportunity-cost/): The real cost of any choice is the next-best alternative you give up. - [Pareto Principle (80/20)](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/pareto-principle/): A minority of inputs often drives a majority of outcomes. Find the vital few, focus there first. - [Pavlovian Conditioning](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/pavlovian-conditioning/): A neutral cue paired with a meaningful event can come to trigger the response on its own. - [Perceptual Bias](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/perceptual-bias/): When perception systematically deviates—illusions, context effects—so the same data looks different. - [Porter’s Five Forces](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/porters-five-forces/): A framework to assess industry structure and profit pools by evaluating five competitive forces and their drivers. - [Principal-Agent Problem](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/principal-agent-problem/): When decision rights are delegated, agents optimise their own payoff under information asymmetry. Without smart contracts and governance, effort, risk and horizon drift away from the principal’s goals. - [Probabilistic Thinking](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/probabilistic-thinking/): Reason in degrees of belief, not certainties: use base rates, ranges, and expected value—then update as evidence arrives. - [Redundancy](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/redundancy/): Add independent alternatives so one failure doesn’t stop the outcome; test failover so the backup isn’t imaginary. - [Regression to the Mean](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/regression-to-the-mean/): Extreme results are usually followed by more typical ones—even without any real change. - [Regret Minimalisation Framework](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/regret-minimalisation-framework/): Project yourself to the decision horizon and choose the option that you will regret least. Weight omissions heavily, and treat reversibility as a key lever. - [Richard Koch’s 3 Key Formulas](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/richard-kochs-3-key-formulas/): Koch argues that breakout ventures operationalise three repeatable formulas: a Customer Attraction engine, a Delivery machine, and a Commercial formula that locks in fat margins. (He also describes a fourth, Innovation, as an optional accelerator.)   - [Second Order Thinking](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/second-order-thinking/): Consider the long-term and indirect consequences of decisions, rather than just the immediate or obvious ones. - [Signal versus Noise](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/signal-versus-noise/): Distinguish meaningful information from random fluctuation. Set thresholds and smoothing to avoid reacting to noise, and act only when movements clear expected variability. - [Star Principle](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/star-principle/): Richard Koch’s rule to back category leaders in high‑growth niches; leadership + growth compounding. - [State → Story → Strategy](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/state-story-strategy/): Align your state, story and strategy; order matters. - [Supply and Demand](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/supply-demand/): Prices and quantities are set by the interaction of willingness to buy and willingness to sell. Shifts in either curve change the equilibrium; elasticities determine how much price vs volume moves. - [Surface Area](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/surface-area/): Increase where good things can happen; shrink where bad things can strike. - [SWOT Analysis](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/swot-analysis/): Map internal factors (Strengths, Weaknesses) and external factors (Opportunities, Threats), then convert the grid into a short list of strategic moves. - [The Growth-Share Matrix](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/the-growth-share-matrix/): A portfolio tool from BCG that maps units by relative share and market growth to guide investment, harvest and exit decisions. - [The Habit Loop](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/the-habit-loop/): Habits run on a loop: cue → craving → response → reward. Make good loops easy and satisfying; break bad ones by keeping the cue and reward but changing the routine. - [The Idea Maze](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/the-idea-maze/): Before building, map the space: the key forks, dead ends and dependencies—so you can choose a promising path and run smarter tests. - [The Map is not the Territory](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/the-map-is-not-the-territory/): All models are simplifications. Don’t confuse the representation (map, metric, plan, narrative) with the thing itself—and update the map when facts change. - [The PARA Method](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/the-para-method/): Organise everything into four buckets—Projects, Areas, Resources, Archives—so what you need is one click from action. - [The Tragedy of the Commons](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/the-tragedy-of-the-commons/): Open-access resources are overused because users don’t bear full costs. - [The Two Arrows](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/the-2-arrows/): Focus where importance intersects with control. Act directly on what matters and you can change; influence or ignore the rest. - [Thought Experiment](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/thought-experiment/): Use a carefully imagined scenario to test an idea’s logic, expose assumptions, and predict consequences—before you spend time or money. - [Thucydides Trap](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/thucydides-trap/): When a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, fear and miscalculation can tip competition into conflict unless incentives and guardrails are redesigned. - [Zero to One](https://barnabyrobson.org/mental-models/zero-to-one/): Aim for vertical progress—create something truly new (0 → 1), not just more of the same (1 → n). Win by building a monopoly on a focused niche and compounding from there.