Season of darkness
2019 will go down as the ‘worst of times’ for many in Hong Kong and 2020 feels like it has started as a ‘winter of despair’. COVID-19 couldn’t really have come at a more inopportune time. Outside Hong Kong and China it has been an extraordinary fortnight. It’s become evident to most people that the impacts of the virus will be global, with deep economic implications.
Epoch of incredulity
Twitter has become a major source of news for many in HK. In part this has been driven by the importance of having ‘real time’ information in a city where social unrest has become a part of life (being in the wrong place at the wrong time could have serious consequences), and also due to living in an ‘epoch of incredulity’. The older and more exposed you get to items in the headlines, the more you realize most mainstream media is very biased and often plain wrong – either side of the great firewall.
A big downside of my Twitter reliance has been getting caught up in whirlwinds of gloom, particularly when the world is rife with conspiracy and suspicion. Broadsheets offer little respite – as I write this the FT leads with “China factory index hits record low on coronavirus”; “US stocks close lower again for worst week since 2008” and “Coronavirus prompts crisis for travel industry”. Boom!
Spring of hope
While all this is very alarming (and in particular I feel for friends, family and colleagues impacted), as I ran across HK’s peaks this evening (article image taken on this run) I saw far more people than normal enjoying the sweeping vistas, crisp clean air and warm sun setting over this amazing city. This gave rise to a feeling of positivity that I hadn’t felt for a while, and wanted to share.
Positive # 1. Investment in healthcare and increases in hygiene
The race to find a vaccine for COVID-19 should lead to a surge of investment in life sciences, which may bring long term improvements to human health and the quality of life affecting society at large. Advances in science often coincide with times of difficulty. Penicillin was first discovered in 1928 during the onset of influenza virus and is now the most widely used antibiotic in the world, curing a host of severe and life-threatening illnesses.
More immediately, we’re seeing:
- Concern about a pandemic having a positive impact globally on personal hygiene behaviors. Studies show the flu alone kills up to 700,000 people every year. Infection reductions through behavioral change could be significant.
- Changes in sentiment in the US and other nations around the need for Universal Healthcare. Having benefited from the National Health Service in the UK, I can’t imagine living in a nation without universal coverage.
Positive # 2. Reinforcement of the shift towards a more ethical and sustainable consumerism
Awareness of the damaging planetary and social impacts of excessive consumerism has been growing, but I feel the virus is likely to spur this on. For example:
- If the trade wars were not enough of a wake-up call, the need for supply chain diversification should now have become evident for all major manufacturers. Across many industries we will see re-shoring (particularly for just-in-time components). This should net net result in reduced carbon footprints. (It should also be a boon to employment and economies in ASEAN).
- Consequences of travel restrictions are likely to include: a rise in domestic tourism everywhere, increased demand for the great outdoors (people will want to avoid densely populated spaces) and generally a greater appreciation of nature.
- China has now banned wildlife trade. This should not only reduce the likelihood of future diseases passing across species, but also protect endangered species.
Positive # 3. A stimulus for traditional retail to develop digital capabilities and secure a long-term future
Everybody knows that Digital Commerce is a big part of the future, however many offline retailers have put off necessary investments. Sometimes you need a sharp shock to drive action. The impact of the virus on offline commerce should provide retailers with the impetus to make crucial investments in digital distribution channels and adapt their business models which may help them sure their long-term existence.
Positive # 4. Greater adoption and acceptance of remote and flexible working
I’m a strong believer in flexible schedules and remote working (for me being able to have dinner with the family, and carry on with work later in the evening once my daughter is asleep, makes a big difference). However, ‘Face time’ seems to be a big prohibitor for many in Asia, who as a result don’t get to enjoy the work-life balance benefits flexible working brings (Japan in particular seems to be acutely afflicted by this). The virus is forcing companies and employees to adopt remote working, including supporting communication and collaboration tools. Long term this may lead to a positive culture shift which should enhance well-being.
